Israel vs. Iran

Much has been made recently of the US Intelligence report that in effect downgrades the threat coming from Iran’s nuclear program. On the one hand, this may be an attempt by the US government to ease Iran into more fruitful diplomatic talks. On the other, it may also be a way of admitting that it is not politically feasible for the US military to tackle the problem. As such, it opens the door to Israel taking up the baton and defending its national security interests.

Indeed, there have been murmurings from the highest political and military echelons in Israel to this extent. It seems that they are now preparing the ground politically for an attempt to hobble Iran’s enrichment program. In Israel, opinion is also divided, although ultimately, there would most likely be a consensus in favor of an attack. The fact remains that whether Iran is capable of deploying a nuclear weapon in 2009 or 2015 is irrelevant. It is still trying to play the nuclear card, and it risks destabilizing the entire volatile Middle East. How ironic that the burden of world security now falls on Israel.

An Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities is, at best, a long shot. The facilities are spread out in a very big country. They are well protected. And Iran’s air defenses are by no means negligible. Compounding this is the greatly reduced effectiveness of air force bombers so far away from base. No doubt there would be a response to such action. One could expect Hizbollah to retaliate in a fashion similar to the Lebanon conflict of Summer 2006, most likely with heavier weapons. A direct rejoinder from the Islamic Republic itself, in the form of long-range missiles, also cannot be written off. This would take the action straight into Israel’s main population centers.

However, reading between the lines, the US and French governments would most likely stand back, and even passively support such a strike by Israel. Iran could not count on support from such powerful allies. Israel may be able to deploy its bombers from a remote location, perhaps even one of the Gulf states, who are privately, but equally, petrified by the prospect of a nuclear Iran. The cost of failure is incalculable. For this reason, the best minds in the IDF are formulating a plan, and saying so publicly.

So while the Western powers have taken a step back, in order to possibly facilitate a diplomatic process, the Israeli stick has been brandished. The stakes being so high, any attack would have to be debilitating, to say the least. I suspect it will be.